Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 30.264297 33.802835 37.891262 43.041882 49.474984 57.416309 68.256373
2025-04-06 24.829529 29.089612 34.452197 41.947056 52.616123 68.140737 94.579998
2025-04-13 22.518219 27.456746 34.152474 44.463284 61.252024 90.852912 159.810947
2025-04-20 20.032500 25.053230 32.198565 43.967335 65.174788 109.243610 253.190140
2025-04-27 18.377019 23.481028 31.055498 44.314127 70.677800 136.258695 488.267792
2025-05-04 17.120780 22.273857 30.200331 44.850137 76.851518 173.679790 1419.819152
2025-05-11 16.027663 21.152814 29.267987 44.964890 82.249289 220.099337 38065.641328
2025-05-18 14.982491 19.979271 28.060530 44.236426 85.297433 267.381933 NaN
2025-05-25 14.232212 19.185923 27.379331 44.401739 91.017791 354.078707 NaN
2025-06-01 13.512311 18.369682 26.546401 44.049910 95.152434 462.252892 NaN
2025-06-08 12.848726 17.587269 25.679428 43.438773 98.251901 603.681469 NaN
2025-06-15 12.270736 16.900444 24.911151 42.903070 101.493301 825.162280 NaN
2025-06-22 11.761947 16.301352 24.261313 42.572047 105.740292 1272.483825 NaN
2025-06-29 11.203487 15.582650 23.320372 41.368078 105.813471 1730.198858 NaN
2025-07-06 11.074644 15.585947 23.762773 43.758235 124.624981 42549.965225 NaN
2025-07-13 10.666961 15.077666 23.148415 43.243830 128.727565 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 10.370912 14.746325 22.857276 43.565971 138.369617 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 10.114141 14.467873 22.646447 44.079556 150.433080 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.842468 14.146376 22.317279 44.187511 160.442570 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.525729 13.726980 21.749679 43.478167 163.689246 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.297414 13.456565 21.476933 43.637995 175.189777 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 9.047099 13.133537 21.066978 43.295798 182.196078 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 8.794597 12.795267 20.601103 42.701746 186.383698 NaN NaN